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Prediction for CME (2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-01T23:09Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33659/-1
CME Note: Developing CME with bulk seen predominantly to the southeast in early frames with a very faint, oval-shaped/asymmetric halo shock portion, associated with an X7.1-class flare and associated eruption from AR3842 (S17E18). Coronal signatures include an EUV wave and large-scale dimming in SDO 171/193 with magnetic field line movement off the southern and southeast limbs and dimming of footpoints bridging the Active Region 3842 (S17E18) in GOES 284. [PRELIMINARY] closed out a non-arrival.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-04T10:55Z (-7.42h, +7.42h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:

CME input parameters:

CME input parameters:
Apex direction (deg): -14.5
Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7
Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 49

initial CME speed: 778.5 (+/- 50) km/s
initial height: 21.5 R_sun
initial time:     2024-10-02T03:25Z
drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km 
ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s
time step: 10 min
ensemble members: 50k

Lead Time: 26.38 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Maike Bauer (ASWO) on 2024-10-03T08:32Z

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